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Are Refunds Really Bigger? How the OBBBA is Impacting 2026 Returns

We are a few weeks into the 2026 tax filing season, and the numbers coming out of the IRS are painting an interesting picture. Across the country—and right here in the greater Orlando area—taxpayers are seeing an increase in their average refunds. The current average sits at $2,476, which is a solid 14.2% jump (about $300) over last year.

While this is good news, it hasn’t quite hit the $1,000 increase that some policymakers predicted. However, it is important to remember that it is still early in the season. As more returns are processed, we expect these averages to shift. The upward trend, however, suggests that the new provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) are starting to take effect.

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New Deductions Driving the Change

The OBBBA introduced several new deductions and credits aimed at working families and individuals. At Sandra Stearns CPA, we want to make sure you understand which of these might apply to your specific situation.

  • Overtime Premium Pay Deduction: If you work overtime, the "half" of your time-and-a-half pay (mandated by the FLSA) may now be deductible. There is a cap of $12,500 for single filers and $25,000 for married couples filing jointly.

  • Tips Tax Deduction: For our clients in the service industry—a huge part of the Florida economy—this is significant. Workers in designated tipped occupations can deduct up to $25,000 of qualified tips annually. Note that married taxpayers must file jointly to claim this.

    Phase-out Alert: Both the overtime and tips deductions begin to phase out at $150,000 MAGI ($300,000 for joint filers) and disappear completely at $275,000 and $550,000, respectively.

  • Auto Loan Interest Deduction: If you bought a new, U.S.-assembled vehicle for personal use after 2024, you can deduct up to $10,000 of the loan interest. This applies whether you itemize or take the standard deduction. Income limits apply, phasing out starting at $100,000 ($200,000 joint).

  • Enhanced Standard and Senior Deductions: The standard deduction has jumped to $31,500 for married couples and $15,750 for singles. Additionally, there is a new "Senior Bonus" of $6,000 for taxpayers aged 65 and older. This bonus begins to phase out at $75,000 MAGI for singles ($150,000 joint).

  • Expanded Child Tax Credit: The credit is now $2,200 per child. This benefit is available in full for joint filers earning up to $400,000 and single filers up to $200,000.

  • Higher SALT Limit: The State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap has been raised significantly from $10,000 to $40,000. For high earners (over $500,000 MAGI), this cap begins to decrease.

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Why Else Are Refunds Higher?

Beyond the new law, a few other factors are influencing refund size this year:

  • Withholding Gaps: Many tax changes happened mid-year, and IRS withholding tables didn't update immediately. This means many employees had more tax withheld from their paychecks than necessary, resulting in a larger refund now.

  • Inflation Adjustments: Tax brackets and standard deductions were adjusted for cost-of-living increases, which helps prevent "bracket creep" and lowers overall liability.

  • Refundable Adoption Credit: Up to $5,000 of the Adoption Tax Credit is now refundable, meaning you can receive it as cash even if you have zero tax liability.

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Navigating a Complex Tax Season

The 2026 season is proving to be a test for the IRS. With staffing shortages and a backlog of returns, processing times have slowed slightly. We are seeing a decrease in processed returns compared to previous years.

If you are hesitant to file because the changes seem overwhelming, or you are worried about IRS delays, please don't let that stop you. With over 38 years of experience, Sandra Stearns and our team are fully up-to-speed on the OBBBA provisions. We are here to ensure every eligible deduction—from auto loan interest to the senior bonus—is correctly applied to your return.

We specialize in helping individuals and small businesses in the Orlando area optimize their financial outcomes. Let us handle the complexity so you can feel confident in your results.

Ready to file? Contact Sandra Stearns CPA today to schedule your appointment.

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